Tusport - News - AC Milan vs Cagliari: Late surge meets a drought since 1997

Twenty-seven percent of AC Milan’s goals arrive after the 76th minute, a closing kick that has defined their home identity. That late surge confronts a Cagliari Calcio side that has not celebrated an away win at San Siro since 1997—even though last season brought two lively draws, 1-1 in Milan and 3-3 in Sardinia. History is emphatic. In the last 26 meetings at AC Milan’s home, the Rossoneri have won 21, drawn 4 and lost only once, with a 60-20 goal difference. Across 52 total clashes, Milan lead 35 wins to Cagliari’s 3, plus 14 draws, and a 97-40 aggregate. The most common scoreline between these clubs is 1-0—nine times overall, including five instances at San Siro—underlining how thin margins often decide this fixture. Timing matters. Milan’s slowest phase is between the 16th and 30th minutes, when just 6% of their goals are scored—the lowest share in the league. Cagliari’s best window to unsettle the hosts may come early, pressing Milan’s buildup and forcing errors in that lull. But the decisive test almost always arrives late. With over a quarter of Milan’s goals packed into the final quarter-hour, Cagliari must preserve energy, concentration and structure deep into the second half. For Stefano Pioli’s side, the script is clear: control the central channels, squeeze transitions and trust the bench to tilt the game after 70 minutes. The pattern of narrow wins suggests set pieces, second balls and quick wing rotations could be pivotal. For Cagliari, discipline is everything—keep the scoreboard tight, slow Milan’s tempo, and protect the box against late crosses and cut-backs. Last season’s 1-1 and 3-3 results are the cautionary note for Milan: this matchup can spring goals and drama if the rhythm breaks open. Yet the long-run trends remain dominant. The data points toward a cagey contest defined by details, with Milan’s historical edge and late-game punch setting the tone. Whether Cagliari can finally end a San Siro drought dating back to 1997 will hinge on surviving the final 15 minutes—when Milan so often turn control into points.