Six straight matches with a goal — Colombia enter this international friendly brimming with attacking confidence. The central storyline is simple and stark: the first goal is likely to decide it. At home, when Colombia go 1-0 up, they have converted that lead into victory 100% of the time. Flip it, though, and Congo DR’s away record when striking first is almost as ruthless, closing out 83% of those games. This is a race to strike first, with real consequences if either side blinks. Form guides lean yellow and blue. Colombia’s last five performances outpace Congo DR’s, and the hosts average 2.33 goals per game at home, a number that speaks to sustained chance creation, not just hot finishing. By contrast, Congo DR average 1.27 away, solid enough to suggest they will threaten, yet not enough to erase the home edge. Momentum in the first half could be decisive. Colombia win 50% of their first halves, compared with 36% for Congo DR, an indicator that the hosts often set the early tone. If Colombia draw first blood, history says the game may be effectively over; they have never overturned a 0-1 home deficit, while Congo DR manage a 25% recovery rate when trailing 1-0 away. In short, the opening 30 minutes will define the script. Expect Colombia to press high and play vertically through the lines, using quick combinations to target gaps between Congo DR’s midfield and back line. Wide overloads and early crosses should test the visitors, who will likely prioritize compactness and counterpunches. For Congo DR, survival in the opening phases is key. If they can frustrate Colombia and generate transitions, their away profile suggests they can be clinical when the moment arrives. Set pieces could provide the swing: Colombia’s sustained pressure yields corners and free-kicks, while Congo DR’s athleticism on restarts can flip territory in an instant. Discipline matters, too — conceding cheap fouls in the final third would invite trouble for either side. Projection: Colombia to find a way, with their scoring streak and superior recent form tilting the balance. A 2-1 home win fits the numbers — Colombia’s 2.33 home average against Congo DR’s 1.27 away output — but the first goal remains the hinge on which everything turns.