An unstoppable run meets a surging host. Ecuador arrive on a remarkable 19‑match unbeaten streak, but Ivory Coast counter with three straight wins and goals in nine consecutive outings. At home, the Elephants average 1.8 goals per game, while Ecuador net just 0.67 away. In a matchup this tight, the first goal could decide almost everything. Numbers sharpen the edge toward the hosts. Ivory Coast win 50% of first halves and convert an early 1–0 home lead into victory 80% of the time. By contrast, Ecuador have not turned a 0–1 away lead into a win in the sample tracked, nor have they mounted a comeback from 1–0 down on the road. Add in that Ivory Coast’s last five-match performance outpaces Ecuador’s, and the storyline tilts toward a home-controlled start. Expect Ivory Coast to press early, play to width, and force the visitors into rushed clearances and fouls in the defensive third. Set pieces could be decisive given the hosts’ home scoring clip and the psychological weight of that first strike. Ecuador’s path lies in structure: compressing lines, slowing the tempo, and countering into the half-spaces. Their unbeaten run reflects resilience and game management, but the away scoring rate suggests they must be clinical with limited chances. Key phase: the opening 30 minutes. If Ivory Coast score first, the data suggests they become heavy favorites. If Ecuador strike early, history says protecting that lead away from home has been a challenge, so a draw becomes their most realistic ceiling without a second goal. Outlook: a controlled, tactical contest with margins razor-thin. The form guide points to a narrow Ivory Coast edge, potentially in a low‑scoring game, with 1–0 or 2–1 plausible. Ecuador’s record makes them hard to beat, but Ivory Coast’s momentum, home numbers, and first‑goal leverage give them the slight advantage.