Ecuador’s 19-match unbeaten run faces its sternest recent exam against an Ivory Coast side riding a three-game winning streak and a nine-match scoring streak. It is a clash of durable resilience versus accelerating momentum — and the numbers hint at a narrow edge for the hosts. Ivory Coast have found reliable output at home, averaging 1.8 goals, while Ecuador manage just 0.67 per game on their travels. That gap matters in tight friendlies where the first goal tilts the field. The Elephants win 50% of first halves and, crucially, when they lead 1-0 at home they go on to win 80% of the time. In contrast, Ecuador have not converted a 0-1 away lead into victory in the available sample and have never won away when trailing 1-0 — indicators that game state weighs heavily on their road form. Yet dismissing La Tri would be a mistake. Nineteen matches unbeaten underscores an elite level of defensive organization and mentality, and they have scored in five straight. That consistency means even if Ecuador don’t create volume, they often find a moment. Expect long spells of control and patience from the visitors, who will try to slow the tempo and limit Ivory Coast’s transitions. Form over the last five matches tilts toward Ivory Coast, suggesting sharper execution in key moments. The first-half pattern is pivotal: the hosts win 50% of opening periods to Ecuador’s 40%, increasing the probability that Ivory Coast strike first. Should that happen, their 80% closeout rate at home becomes the decisive lever. Conversely, if Ecuador nick the opener, the historical data suggests they struggle to turn away leads into wins — leaving the draw in play. Projection: a competitive match with Ivory Coast’s home production and recent edge slightly outweighing Ecuador’s remarkable unbeaten streak. Expect at least one goal from the hosts, with Ecuador dangerous enough to answer. A home win or a draw feels most likely, with a one-goal margin or a 1-1 outcome in the range. Key storylines: Can Ivory Coast’s front line maintain the nine-game scoring run? Will Ecuador’s unbeaten resilience travel despite limited away scoring? The opening 30 minutes may tell the story.