Belgium arrive on a 15-match unbeaten surge and eight straight games with at least one goal, facing a New Zealand side that has conceded in 12 consecutive outings. It is the starkest contrast on this World Cup stage: an away attack averaging 3.17 goals per match against a host defense still searching for a clean sheet. The numbers frame the storyline. Belgium win first halves in 50% of their matches; New Zealand only 18%. If Belgium strike first away from home, they have historically closed the door—winning 100% of those contests. Even when they fall behind 1-0 on their travels, the Red Devils recover to win half of the time. That resilience, coupled with sustained scoring form, underpins why neutral models and trend-watchers will see the visitors as clear favorites. New Zealand’s best route to an upset is proactive, not passive. At home they average 1.67 goals, which suggests they can land a punch. Transition moments and set pieces offer their most realistic entry points, particularly if they can draw Belgium into lateral phases and contest second balls. Yet the defensive trend is unforgiving: 12 straight matches with at least one concession is not just noise—it is a habit Belgium’s runners, overloads and third-man combinations are built to exploit. The opening 20 minutes loom large. Belgium tend to impose tempo and verticality early; New Zealand must resist the first-wave press and avoid cheap turnovers that feed quick Belgian carries between the lines. If the All Whites score first, the context shifts, but even then the data warns that Belgium remain live. Game-state management—when to absorb, when to expand—will decide whether an early New Zealand lead becomes a platform or a prompt for Belgian pressure. Recent form tilts further toward Belgium: their last five-match performance profile is superior. Both sides failed to win their most recent FIFA World Cup match, so there is a shared hunger for a reset. The difference is Belgium’s reliability in replicating chances away from home versus New Zealand’s struggle to string together defensive stops. Projection: expect a high-event match. With Belgium averaging 3.17 away and New Zealand 1.67 at home, the trend line points to over 2.5 goals. Belgium are well placed to lead at halftime and control the margins thereafter. Both teams scoring is plausible given New Zealand’s home output and Belgium’s aggressiveness. Bottom line: Belgium to win, propelled by superior first-half control and a ruthless response to transitions. For New Zealand, an upset path exists—fast starts, aerial duels, and set plays—but it likely requires a rare clean defensive spell and near-perfect game management against one of international football’s most consistent travelers.