The first goal may decide everything. At home, Senegal convert a 1-0 lead into victory 88% of the time, while Iraq have never recovered from 1-0 down away in the sample (0%). Layer that on top of Senegal’s stronger recent form and Iraq’s three-match losing run, and the early minutes look decisive in this World Cup matchup. Senegal’s habit of striking first is backed by the numbers: they win 42% of first halves and average 1.57 goals at home. That blend of tempo and efficiency often sets the agenda, particularly when the game’s rhythm is still being established. Iraq, by contrast, win just 12% of first halves and average only 0.67 goals away, a gap that speaks to both chance creation and finishing under pressure on the road. The statistical picture is stark but not one-dimensional. If Iraq do break through first, they are capable front-runners: when leading 0-1 away, they go on to win 75% of the time. That is the path to an upset—silence the start, spring the counter, and protect the advantage. For Senegal, it reinforces the game plan: assert early control, turn pressure into shots, and make set pieces count. A halftime lead is particularly valuable here, given Senegal’s 42% halftime win rate and their control from the front. Context also favors the hosts. Senegal have outperformed Iraq historically on the World Cup stage and arrive with a better five-match trend. Both sides lost their last match—and neither won their most recent World Cup outing—so composure after setbacks will matter. But Iraq’s recent slide (three straight defeats, winless in four) raises questions about resilience if the game tilts against them. Key battlegrounds: the opening 30 minutes, where Senegal’s wing pressure and high tempo can pin Iraq deep; set plays, where size and delivery can tilt margins; and transitions, Iraq’s best route to creating a high-value chance. If Senegal score first, the probabilities tilt heavily their way. If Iraq land the first punch, the contest becomes a tight, defensive chess match. Projection: Edge Senegal, driven by first-half control and home efficiency. The longer Iraq keep it level—and especially if they strike first—the more the dynamics flip toward their 75% away-lead conversion trend.