The first goal could decide everything when Spain host Cape Verde in an international friendly. The numbers are stark: Cape Verde have won 100% of their away matches when leading 1-0, but 0% when trailing by the same score. For Spain, a 1-0 home lead converts into victory two times out of three (66%). In a matchup defined by momentum, whoever strikes first holds a measurable edge. Form trends add intrigue. Spain arrive on a 10-game unbeaten run, a sign of control and consistency that has underpinned their recent evolution. Cape Verde counter with a three-match winning streak and a five-game run of scoring at least once, proof of an attack that travels well and punishes mistakes. The travelers average 2.33 goals away from home, while Spain post 2.14 per game at home—data that points toward chances at both ends. Expect a fast start from the hosts. Spain win 70% of first halves, a pattern built on early pressure, quick ball circulation, and depth between the lines. Cape Verde win 50% of their opening periods and will likely accept a compact shape, trusting transitions and direct running to trouble Spain’s back line. If Cape Verde land the first punch, history says they are ruthless closers on the road. If they fall behind, their comeback record away from home offers little comfort. Context also matters. On the World Cup stage, Spain’s pedigree outstrips Cape Verde’s, reinforcing the hosts’ status as favorites. Yet this fixture is no formality. Cape Verde’s current streak and reliable scoring suggest they can force uncomfortable moments, particularly if they can draw Spain into open-field duels and set-piece battles. Implications are clear: the opening half-hour is the compass for this contest. Spain’s plan will be to assert control early and convert pressure into a first strike. Cape Verde’s counter is to absorb, counterpunch, and capitalize on any transition chaos. On balance, Spain carry the stronger resume and home metrics, but Cape Verde’s away proficiency argues for a tight, entertaining game. Projection: Spain to edge it, with both teams likely to score.