Tusport - News - Cremonese vs Como: Late goals and history shape Serie A duel

If recent history is a guide, US Cremonese enter this Lombardy derby with the edge—but Como 1907’s momentum insists on a closer look. Cremonese have dominated the matchup, winning 12 of the last 20 meetings (5 draws, 3 losses) and holding a 34-18 goal advantage. At home the split is even starker: seven wins from the last nine clashes in Cremona, with a 16-7 margin, and Como’s last away victory here dates back to 2013. The most common score between these sides is 3-1—recorded four times—signalling matches that often open up late. That final theme matters. Cremonese score 30% of their goals between minutes 76-90, while Como hit 23% in the same window. Expect late drama, tactical gambles, and fresh legs to shape the final act. Substitutions and game-state awareness could be decisive, especially if the opening hour turns cagey. Form, though, is Como’s best argument. The visitors arrive unbeaten in their last four games, suggesting improved resilience and compactness. That run contrasts with Cremonese’s occasional home bluntness: they have failed to score in 7 of 18 Serie A home matches this season. Como, for their part, have drawn blanks in 6 of 18 away fixtures—evidence that either side can struggle to convert territory into chances, particularly when the first goal proves elusive. The tactical picture points toward Cremonese controlling phases through possession and width, looking to pin Como back and generate second balls and set-piece pressure. Expect targeted crosses and runs attacking the near post, especially as legs tire late. Como’s route is more pragmatic: stay compact in a mid-to-low block, spring transitions into the channels, and protect the defensive third from cut-backs. A premium will be placed on defensive concentration after the 75th minute and on set-piece execution at both ends. Key battlegrounds include: first goal value (given both teams’ occasional scoring droughts), handling of late-game momentum, and discipline on rest defense to prevent counterpunches. While the historical pattern leans toward a higher scoreline and even that familiar 3-1, current form hints at a tighter balance. A narrow home win (2-1) sits on the table, yet a 1-1 is plausible if Como’s unbeaten confidence translates into clean defensive phases. Implications are straightforward: a Cremonese victory would reaffirm a long-standing home hold over Como and stabilize their top-flight momentum; a positive result for Como would finally break a decade-long drought in Cremona and validate their recent uptick. Either way, don’t blink late—this derby tends to be decided when fatigue meets opportunity.